Wolfram Language

Extended Probability & Statistics

Inhomogeneous Poisson Process

An inhomogeneous Poisson process is a Poisson process with a time-varying rate. It can be used to model the arrival times of customers at a store, events of traffic, and positions of damage along a road. The probability density function of the process at any time slice t is Poisson distributed.

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PDF[InhomogeneousPoissonProcess[f[\[Tau]], \[Tau]][t], x]
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Simulate an inhomogeneous Poisson process.

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td = RandomFunction[ InhomogeneousPoissonProcess[2 + 1/(1 + t^2), t], {0, 20}];
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ListStepPlot[td, Filling -> Axis, ImageSize -> Medium, PlotTheme -> "Detailed"]
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An inhomogeneous Poisson process can be used to model arrival counts. Here, the process is used to simulate the number of arrivals at a small fast-food restaurant if the hourly arrival rates of customers are given.

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arrivalrates = {{0, 8}, {1, 9}, {2, 7}, {4, 6}, {5, 12}, {6, 14}, {7, 11}, {8, 6}, {9, 4}, {10, 3}, {11, 8}, {12, 15}, {13, 12}, {14, 10}, {15, 8}, {16, 6}, {17, 12}, {18, 17}, {19, 15}, {20, 12}, {21, 6}, {22, 5}, {23, 7}}; \[Lambda][t_] = Interpolation[arrivalrates, InterpolationOrder -> 1][t];
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Plot[\[Lambda][t], {t, 0, 23}, Exclusions -> None, Filling -> Axis, ImageSize -> Medium, PlotTheme -> "Detailed"]
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Define an inhomogeneous Poisson process for the arrivals based on the given rate function λ(t) and simulate the arrival counts within a day.

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\[ScriptCapitalP] = InhomogeneousPoissonProcess[\[Lambda][t], t]; td = RandomFunction[\[ScriptCapitalP], {0, 23, 1}, 3];
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ListStepPlot[td, ImageSize -> Medium, PlotTheme -> "Detailed"]
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